Somehow, you knew this was coming.
You had to. Otherwise, you’re just some fair-weather reader and you’ll be naturally disgusted one way or the other with my reasoning.
Boo hoo.
The New Orleans Saints are not going to win the Super Bowl. Sorry dad, mom, grandma, granddad, and everyone else in the family who is pinning their hopes on some Miami miracle. It ain’t happening. (Or, as I almost titled this post, “Who dat say they gonna beat dem Colts?” Thank God for sanity … and a journalism instructor that drilled into my mind the wisdom to shun abnormally overused clichès.)
Indianapolis Colts (-6) over New Orleans Saints
Chalk it up to the tale of two defenses. One is sketchy beyond measure, while the other (while healthy) is manageable and decidedly the game changer. All week you’ve been inundated with talks of Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Reggie Bush, Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney. Of all of those amazing names, and much more unnamed, only Freeney will ultimately shift the makeup of this game and alter its outcome simply by his presence.
Because out of the five names, we know exactly what four of them will do. And yes, they will all have amazing games, as we’ve grown accustomed to. But it’s Freeney (not Wayne) who we worry will play in any decent shape.
There’s a reason for all of the Freeney hype you’ve read in the last two weeks.
When Brees is pushed to the limit — I’m talking about hurried, hit and sacked — like all good quarterbacks, he steps up to the plate. Taking a closer peek at the numbers reveals. In what should be a heralded offensive line, Brees has gone through the entirety of the 2009-10 season being sacked only 20 times, which was seventh best in the NFL among 32 qualifying quarterbacks. (Based on games played and passes attempted. Also, his counterpart, Manning, was ranked second behind only Vince “I played half a season” Young.) Coupled with a great arm, amazing accuracy and above solid wide receivers, he’s exploded this season, completing 70 percent of his passes and throwing 34 touchdowns to only 11 interceptions. His quarterback rating is off the chart, so to speak (109.6).
But in games where No. 9 took on two or more sacks, the Saints’ margin of victory (11.27) increased to (14.4). That’s right, increased.
What does this say? Or, more precisely, what doesn’t it say? When Drew Brees has time to think, he doesn’t make quick decisions, getting rid of the ball and therefore putting more points on the board for the Saints.
What else does it say? That if I’m right, and Freeney (13.5 sacks) is less than 100 percent (wondering if he’ll take one of those shots in the rear) than the state of Indiana wants him to be, the Colts will lack the pass rush they think is necessary. In a confused, round about way, this will work to the Colts’ advantage. Brees will over-think things, tossing into the wild. (This is, as I would presume, the one game where you don’t want your players to think too much.) And make no mistake about it, Freeney is someone you have to think about, account for and put in the gameplan. He’ll keep Brees’ mind off of any sort of awkward throws he would concoct in his own right. But without him, the question mark on Brees’ game will only bolden without the pressure.
We’re talking mind games here people.
And let me tell you something else, that Manning fella is pretty good about not letting anyone get into his head — for any reason. Plus, every time I’ve bet against Manning I’ve lost. So I won’t suggest to you such an idiotic expenditure of your precious coin without toying with some other concocted reasoning. I know, it sucks. But so does NASCAR. Wait, whaaaa?
